When prospective naval history students look at 2021, they could be forgiven for mistaking it for the 19th century: A growing number of European powers are sending warships to Asia in a trend that evokes memories of gunboat diplomacy.

The new British aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth will soon begin its first deployment to Asia-Pacific, at the helm of the largest in the Royal Navy. maneuver since the Falklands War.

The French Navy is currently leading exercises with US, Japanese and Australian forces around the US Pacific Territory of Guam. The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is also en route to Asia-Pacific. Earlier this year, France already sent a submarine to the Pacific and conducted an exercise in the Bay of Bengal with the United States, Japan, Australia and India.

Even the Netherlands and Germany join them, each sending a frigate on tour in the region.

The deployments show that security in Asia, where the United States and China are locked in increasingly intense geopolitical competition, has exploded the European agenda.

“All of those countries that decide to increase their naval footprint in the Asia-Pacific region at the same time are motivated to some extent by a desire to show their commitment to the rules-based international order led by the United States on which they, as NATO members, depend on their security, ”said Sarah Kirchberger, head of strategy and security for Asia-Pacific at the Institute for Security Policy at the University of Kiel. “But to an even greater extent, it reflects growing concerns over Chinese attempts to unilaterally change the military status quo in the region, for example through an increasingly threatening stance towards Taiwan and the assertive behavior of the militia.” Chinese maritime, coast guard and navy. ships in the disputed areas of the South China Sea. “

But while the nations sending gunboats to China’s shores in the 19th century shared the simple goal of forcing Beijing to let them derive economic benefits from the country, the situation today is more complicated, raising the question of the outcome of the new diplomacy. European naval can reach.

The respective European countries differ considerably in the role they see themselves in Asia and in the way they want to challenge China.

The UK, in search of a new role after its dramatic separation from the EU, claims it has never left the region and wants to be a ‘force for good’. France, whose Pacific island territories give it one of the largest exclusive economic zones in the world, even sees itself as a resident power. But other European countries are more cautious.

“Europe sees its role as complementary to the United States and hopes that its presence can be a way to defuse tensions,” said Alice Billon-Galland, a researcher at Chatham House involved in advising on the future of the NATO. “It’s about finding common ground between deterrence and a constructive balance.”

Germany is a good example. The Chancellery, aware of the country’s economic interests in China, hesitates to anger Beijing. The frigate therefore goes visit Shanghai before entering the disputed South China Sea.

“It doesn’t look very good as it seems to suggest that they are asking permission from China to sail through the South China Sea,” Billon-Galland said. “Germany is trying to crisscross the circle by being both active with its allies and by not challenging China too much. We will see in the years to come to what extent this is a tenable position.

Another big question is how much Europeans can really get involved. Faced with the rapid expansion of the Chinese navy, the United States can sometimes find it difficult to conduct all the patrols in Asian waters it deems necessary. This is where France or the UK could step in.

But such measures must be balanced with the security interests of those countries closer to home. “For Europe, natural areas of interest are the transatlantic space, Russia, the Middle East and Africa,” said Bec Strating, an Asian security expert at La Trobe University in Melbourne. “We are monitoring the extent to which Europeans are going to be important players in Indo-Pacific security.”