A look at US and EU pork exports and Chinese pork demand • Farm Policy News
American pork exports
In his monthly Outlook for Livestock, Dairy and Poultry USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) report last week said that “Pork exports in July were £ 508 million, 8.5% less than a year ago.
Increased exports to most major markets could not compensate for significantly lower shipments to China / Hong Kong.
“Canada was the alone another large market to which shipments have been lowest in july. “
The ERS report noted that “exports have been 1.8 percent below one year ago until the end of July, and down 46% for China. “
Last week’s update added that “second half pork exports are reduced to reflect expectations of continued decline in shipments to China Hong Kong. “
“Total exports for 2021 are expected to rise to £ 7.334 billion, or nearly 1% more than exports in 2020,” the Outlook report said.
USDA Global agricultural supply and demand estimates report earlier this month said that “the pork export forecast for 2021 is reduced on recent trade data and forecasts slower growth in demand in Asia; no changes are made to the 2022 forecast.”
Specifically, Bloomberg writers Michael Hirtzer and Dominic Carey reported last week that “the mass slaughter of pigs in the Dominican Republic after the onset of a deadly swine disease drove the country fill up on American pork.
“Exporters sold last week a record amount from meat to the island nation, US Department of Agriculture data showed Thursday. This was after African swine fever was detected in pigs there in late July, during the first outbreak in the Americas in four decades. “
EU pork exports
Regarding European Union pork exports, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) stated in a recent report (“European Union: Breeding and Annual Products“) that,” During the first half from 2021, EU pork exports increased by fourteen percent – with an increase in exports to China (+173,000 MT CWE), the Philippines (+82,000), Vietnam (+35,000) and Chile (+28,000).
However, the report noted that “the forecasts of FAS / Beijing Chinese pork imports to decline by 528,000 MT CWE in 2021 compared to 2020. “
FAS pointed out that, “About sixty percent of Chinese pork imports are of European origin, which could imply a reduction of more than 300,000 MT CWE in pork exports from the EU. Another expansion exports to not chinese destinations, mainly the Philippines and Vietnam, and a recovery in exports to the United Kingdom is expected to largely compensate for reduced exports to China. “
More generally, FAS has indicated that, “Since 2013, the EU was the largest pork exporter in the world, but he faces increased competition from Brazil and the United States. Until recently, the EU pig sector, in particular the Spanish sector, was able to compete with other suppliers due to its reliability and flexibility in responding to market demands. TO reduce dependence on the Chinese market, the EU pig sector is looking for alternative markets.
However, the FAS added that “A alternative market for the total volume of pork shipped to shipped in China, however, is Currently unavailable, which creates a challenge for EU pork exporters. “
Meanwhile, Reuters News reported last week that “another case of African swine fever (ASF) was confirmed in a Boar in the region of Uckermark, in the Land of Brandenburg, in eastern Germany, the Ministry of Health of the Land of Brandenburg announced on Thursday.
“This is the second case of ASF in a wild boar in the Uckermark region, which is far from other parts of Brandenburg where ASF has been found in large numbers of wild boars.”
Another Reuters News article reported earlier this month that “talks with China over lifting its ban on German pork imports after discovery of African swine fever (ASF) in Germany remain difficultGerman Agriculture Minister Uwe Feiler said on Friday.
“China and a series of other pork buyers prohibited imports of German pork in September 2020 after the first ASF case in Germany.
“Germany asks China to accept the ‘regionalization concept‘which stops pork imports only from the region from a country where swine fever was found instead of a blanket ban on sales across the country.
Chinese pork demand
Financial Times writer Hudson Lockett reported earlier this month that “officials said that China had fully recovered of the impact of African swine fever, which first arrived in the country in August 2018. Outbreaks of the disease continued to disrupt farms across the country, analysts said, but supplies have increased dramatically after halving the size of China’s pig herd in 2019.
“Wholesale pork prices have fallen about 54% to 20.17 Rmb ($ 3.12) per kilogram, roughly where they were before the swine fever pandemic hit China.
But reports from local markets indicated that demand has not returned to previous levels, suggesting that many Chinese consumers have permanently switched to other proteins.
The FT article stated, “’We have entered a period of structurally weaker demand. We had years when [pork] the prices were high and the people switched with beef, chicken or fish, ”said Darin Friedrichs, analyst at Shanghai-based StoneX. ‘It looks like we have reached the peak of pork consumption in China.. ‘”